DIRS.INFO The most relevant business & tech news

☆ The future of interest rates is more surprises
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Observing these oscillating forecasts, a bystander might conclude that nobody knows anything about the future direction of interest rates. The study examined data from 19 countries back to 1870 and found only a tenuous link between the determinants of savings and investment and real interest rates. “No single factor or combination of such factors”, the authors concluded, “can consistently explain the long-term evolution of real interest rates. Indeed, if the trend persisted Schmelzing forecast that “within a generation historically implied real interest rates will have reached negative territory”. Homer and Sylla wryly observe that people assume that the interest rates they encounter are normal and are surprised by what comes next.

Persons: Claudio Borio, “, ”, Paul Schmelzing, Sidney Homer, Richard Sylla, Sylla, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, U.S, Capital Economics, Bank for International, Austrian, Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics, Financial, Boston College, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Central, U.S . Federal, London, Japan

☆ Japan has become a gold mine for value investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Having experienced a multi-decade decline after 1990, Japanese stocks have escaped the doldrums. Reuters GraphicsAnother shadow that has long lingered over corporate Japan is management teams which tended to neglect shareholders and prioritise the interests of other stakeholders. METI is also redefining the aim of Japanese companies, says Stephen Codrington, founder of the independent research firm Codrington Japan. Japan, whose regime was formerly unfriendly to equity investors, is moving in the opposite direction, says Drew Edwards, head of GMO Usonian Japan. Japan, as Codrington says, has become a gold mine for value investors.

Persons: Jeremy Siegel, “ Stocks, It's, Alex Kinmont, James Montier, METI, Stephen Codrington, Codrington, Toby Rodes, Edward McQuarrie, McQuarrie, Drew Edwards, there’s, Warren Buffett, Peter Thal Larsen, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Investors, Credit Suisse Global Investment, Nikkei, U.S ., Local, Credit Suisse, Ministry, Economy, Trade, Industry, Electronics, Hitachi, Fujitsu, Investment, Toyota, Investment Fund, Tokyo Stock Exchange, Kaname, Takisawa Machine Tool, managements, Toyota Industries, Santa Clara University, U.S, Thomson Locations: Japan, U.S, Europe, Codrington Japan, United States

☆ China’s leaders speed towards Japanisation
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

LONDON, Oct 20 (Reuters Breakingviews) - China’s real estate market is in decline. The trouble is that China’s economic imbalances are far worse than Japan’s in 1990. Yet China’s GDP per capita has reached only half of Japan’s level in 1990. China’s economic misdirection is catalogued in Yasheng Huang’s “The Rise and Fall of the East”. After 1978 the authorities gave provincial governments substantial freedom to promote economic growth and rewarded them for meeting a growth target.

Persons: Xi, Xi Jinping, Huang, –, Xi’s, Beijing’s, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Monetary Fund, South, Asian, IMF, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Bank for International, MIT Sloan School of Management, HK, Communist, Huawei, Washington, Thomson Locations: Marrakech, People’s Republic, China, South Korea, Japan, deflate, Tokyo, California, Beijing, Taiwan, Communist

☆ Why an economic soft landing may prove elusive
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

His latest book, “You Always Hurt the One You Love: Central Banks and the Murder of Capitalism”, won’t make him any friends in monetary policymaking circles. The Fed responded by reducing interest rates to zero and employing various tools to lower bond yields. These economic imbalances prevented central banks from returning interest rates to normal levels. Unless, that is, liberalising economic reforms are enacted that boost productivity and allow interest rates to rise. Bernard Conolly’s book, “You Always Hurt the One You Love: Central Banks and the Murder of Capitalism” was published in hardback in September.

Persons: Bernard Connolly, Connolly, won’t, they’ve, Michael Woodford, ”, Alan Greenspan, staved, Lehman, Edward Chancellor’s “, Bernard Conolly’s, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, European Monetary Union, European Commission, Banks, U.S . Federal, stoke, Lehman Brothers, Fed, Reuters Graphics, Treasury, Securities, Thomson Locations: U.S, United States, British, Europe, American, “, ”, disequilibrium, intertemporal, Central

☆ UK could borrow a leaf from Canada’s mortgage book
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The amount of mortgage debt rose even more sharply. This would require lenders to fix total monthly payments – of both interest and principal – relative to the outstanding mortgage balance. When interest rates rise sharply, as is happening now, repayments might be less than the monthly interest bill. The amount of mortgage debt outstanding would then increase as unpaid interest is added to the principal – a situation known as “negative amortisation”. Since borrowers always hand over a proportion of their income, mortgage payments wouldn’t shrink when interest rates decline.

Persons: Irving Fisher, ”, “, Neal Hudson, Michael Gove, Patrick Macaskie, Victor Dodig, Edward Chancellor, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, Bank of England, Office, National Statistics, Bank of, Fiscal Studies, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, CIBC, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: United Kingdom, ”, Britain, England, Bank of England, United States, Canada

☆ Interest rates have broken the global wealth pump
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Rising inflation and higher interest rates would appear to make matters even worse. In the United States, immigration and the offshoring of manufacturing has undercut the power of labour. Ultra-low interest rates proved the greatest wealth pump ever devised, loading the dice in favour of the financial elite. Since the turn of the century, when the Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan reduced interest rates to a new post-war low, wealth has consistently grown faster than GDP. That’s where higher interest rates come in.

Persons: Leonard Cohen, Peter Turchin, “ cliodynamics ”, Clio, Turchin, Hong Xiuquan, Andrew Carnegie, Henry Clay Frick, ”, Donald Trump, ” Turchin, Alan Greenspan, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, Times, Elites, Steel, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Wall Street, Federal Reserve, McKinsey Global Institute, McKinsey, Thomson Locations: United States, France, China, Taiping, Japan

☆ Lessons from the original Industrial Revolution
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

These are brilliantly described by Martin Hutchinson, a former Breakingviews columnist, in his new book “Forging Modernity: Why and How Britain Developed the Industrial Revolution”. In fact, several pioneers of the Industrial Revolution were self-taught. The Industrial Revolution can be viewed as the world’s first successful energy transition. The task of financing the Industrial Revolution fell to banks that were scattered across the country, some 800 in all. We are so accustomed to the economic growth sparked by the Industrial Revolution that we tend to view economic expansion as pretty much inevitable.

Persons: Martin Hutchinson, King Charles I, Charles, Duke, Bridgewater, Hutchinson, Josiah Wedgwood, Trent, Samuel, Richard, Adam Smith, William Pitt the Younger, Lord Liverpool, Smith, ”, “, Adam Smith’s, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic Organizations: Reuters, Royal Society, Industrial, Nations, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Government, Dudley, Thomson Locations: Britain, England, British, Manchester, Birmingham, Bridgewater, Mersey, Samuel Whitbread’s, West Indies, Netherlands, United Kingdom

☆ Ron Insana says an AI bubble may be forming, but we're not there yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Ron Insana | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

How to trade it Let's remember the elements of a bubble, as defined by many market historians who have written about such financial market phenomena (myself included). The public increasingly has been buying related tech stocks and associated ETFs, but we have yet to see the single-minded focus of the entire stock buying world come to bear on AI stocks. In 1999 alone, some 456 stocks went public at the height of the internet mania. If there is to be a bubble in AI, it's the early days. Also, "easy money" from the Federal Reserve, a key component of financial frenzies, is not fueling speculation in publicly traded AI shares, or any other asset class for that matter.

Persons: Jaap Arriens, Charles MacKay, John Kenneth Galbraith, Edward Chancellor, Charles Kindleberger, David Faber Organizations: Nurphoto, Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Oracle, Adobe, Fund, Nasdaq, CNBC, Federal Reserve Locations: Sea, Mississippi, England, France

☆ Central bankers face a balance sheet reckoning
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

LONDON, May 26 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Central banks’ balance sheets have exploded in size since 2008. That’s not a problem, we’re told, since central banks are not bound by ordinary accounting rules. Ferguson and his colleagues examined fourteen central bank balance sheets over a period of 400 years. Central bank hawks on the other hand, are typically slow to expand their balance sheets during crises. Central banks with weak balance sheets are less credible bastions of a fiat currency.

☆ Private equity is being squeezed from all sides
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

But this time around there’s a lot more private equity money chasing a limited number of opportunities. So private equity funds could face the prospect of a prolonged period of higher borrowing costs, lower valuations, and depressed investment returns. The birth of private equity coincided with the Reagan administration’s policy of relaxing regulations and tax cuts. Recent high profile corporate bankruptcies owned by private equity include car-rental firm Hertz and retailer Toys R Us. The private equity industry could soon find itself caught in a pincer, between tighter financing on the one hand and tighter regulation on the other.

☆ Digital “Chicago Plan” fixes many financial woes
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The economists’ solution – often called the Chicago Plan – was to remove commercial banks from the money-creating business. One of the main problems of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) is that it would compete with old-fashioned bank deposits. With the digital money supply increasing in line with the economy’s potential growth, roughly as Friedman advised, inflation would soon come under control. Non-bank lenders like Apollo Global Management (APO.N) would have an enhanced role under the digital Chicago Plan. At present, there’s little chance of the digital Chicago Plan coming to pass.

☆ A flawed but useful economic model for a bleak age
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Modern Monetary Theory, which endorses unlimited government spending, was all the rage during the years of ultra-low interest rates. John Cochrane’s fiscal theory fits the bill. Cochrane, a senior fellow of the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, recently published “The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level”. Not only are high interest rates incapable of arresting inflation, fiscal theory suggests they actually make the problem worse. Nor do bondholders operate with rational expectations, as fiscal theory suggests.

☆ The bubble in predicting the end of the world
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says the world faces the “most complex, disparate and cross-cutting set of challenges” he’s ever encountered. In his wittily titled “The End of the World is Just the Beginning”, the geopolitical strategist suggests that a number of countries from Germany to China face insuperable demographic challenges. The threat to America’s global hegemony from China is the subject of Ray Dalio’s “The Changing World Order”. The U.S. stock market bubble has only partially deflated, bond yields around the world trail below inflation, and global property markets are exposed to rising interest rates. The Assyrian who forecast the world would end in 2800 BC was wrong.

☆ Crypto winter highlights gold’s warming qualities
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

That’s why crypto pioneers developed stablecoins, which peg their market price to old-fashioned fiat currencies. The FTX founder agreed that digital tokens were impossible to value since they generated no cash flow. In other words, the entire crypto world has the mechanics of a Ponzi scheme. In such a nightmare scenario, access to a decentralised, anonymised type of digital money could prove indispensable. In this world bitcoin serves as the lifeboat for civilisation, offering protection against both anarchy and the surveillance state.

☆ Breakingviews: Crypto winter highlights gold’s warming qualities
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-25 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

LONDON, Nov 25 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The crypto winter is bitterly cold. The FTX founder agreed that digital tokens were impossible to value since they generated no cash flow. In other words, the entire crypto world has the mechanics of a Ponzi scheme. In such a nightmare scenario, access to a decentralised, anonymised type of digital money could prove indispensable. In this world bitcoin serves as the lifeboat for civilisation, offering protection against both anarchy and the surveillance state.

☆ FTX flop evokes history’s great financial swindles
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

As Walter Bagehot wrote in “Lombard Street” in 1873, “The good times too of high price almost always engender much fraud. As cryptocurrencies declined in value, FTX provided a line of credit to BlockFi, a stricken crypto-lender. He talked about Three Arrows Capital, the failed crypto hedge fund, as engaged in “punting”. His firm launched a product based on a basket of crypto assets that it called Shitcoin Index Perpetual Futures, with the unsubtle ticker SHIT-PERP. He commissioned an advertisement, aired during the Super Bowl, in which the comedian Larry David casts doubt on the viability of FTX.

☆ Recession-shy investors can turn to capital cycle
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

But another factor is the capital cycle: the amount of investment entering or exiting an industry. Capital spending by energy firms and miners has declined since the investment boom peaked in the middle of the last decade. Capital spending by large European oil companies has fallen from more than twice depreciation in the mid-2010s to less than one times, according to Bernstein. A similar picture emerges in the mining industry, whose capital spending boom also ended around eight years ago. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX.N), one of the world’s largest copper producers, cut capital spending from $7.2 billion in 2014 to $2.1 billion last year.

☆ Western economies rediscover meaning of scarcity
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Western companies, which outsourced production to China and other emerging markets, found themselves less constrained by their domestic workforces. China’s rising exports lowered the prices of traded goods, dampening inflationary pressures and allowing Western central banks to cut interest rates to their lowest levels in history. In the 1970s, economists worried that fiscal deficits would lead to higher interest rates and lower investment. Western governments now face constraints that are common in developing countries, relating to fiscal policy, inflation and financial stability. To reduce the burden of their war debts, governments in Europe and the United States held interest rates below inflation.

☆ The urgent search for the perfect inflation hedge
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

But when inflation takes off, stocks and bonds become positively correlated, rising and falling together. The failure of bonds and stocks to deliver protection when inflation spikes has forced investors to seek other hedges. “Each attempted inflation hedge has its particular attractions, risks, and shortcomings,” wrote the journalist Henry Hazlitt in 1978. Hazlitt wrote that the only reliable inflation hedge is to end inflation. If the Fed loses its battle against rising prices, more people will come to appreciate the insurance they provide.

☆ Central banks get sucked into financial black hole
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Central bankers around the world want to bring inflation down by returning interest rates to “normal” levels. As a result, the average UK mortgage has grown to 3.4 times average income, up from 1.5 times in the early 1980s, according to housing analyst Neal Hudson. But it’s left many homeowners extremely vulnerable to higher interest rates. As a result, the government’s fiscal position is more exposed to interest rate fluctuations. As a financial black hole opens up, central banks will be forced to stop tightening.

☆ Interest rate delusion may be biggest error of all
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-06 | by ( Edward Chancellor | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The false idea exposed by the current bear market is that interest rates would remain low indefinitely. The belief that interest rates would remain at permanently low levels could prove the most costly error of all. The lowest-ever interest rates gave us the “Everything Bubble”. Now that interest rates are rising, everything is at risk. The pension funds faced margin calls on their loans, and the bond market seized up as they scrambled to raise cash.

Search resuls for: "Edward Chancellor"

21 mentions found